The Price of Thanksgiving: Smaller Plates in a Bigger Debate

Retailers tout cheaper holiday meals, but per-person portions tell a different story

By RoShawn Winburn, Dayton Weekly News

When scrolling through headlines this November readers might think the grocery aisles are finally offering relief. Walmart announced a Thanksgiving dinner for ten people at under $4 per person — a dramatic improvement from 2024's $7-per-person deal. Kroger and ALDI made similar claims. Political voices quickly seized the narrative, as proof that inflation is cooling, that economic policy is working, and that American families can breathe easier.

But walk down the aisles of Kroger, Aldi, or Walmart, and a different story emerges. The deals are real. The savings are advertised. Yet, the plates — the actual food Americans will put on their tables — are noticeably smaller.

What's Really Being Compared?

In 2024, Walmart's Thanksgiving basket contained 29 items and served eight people for approximately $56 total. In 2025, the company announced a meal for ten people at roughly $40, offering a $16 price drop and what appears to be a 40% improvement per person.

The catch? The 2025 basket contains only 15 items. That's 48% fewer products feeding 25% more people. The math doesn't add up to more. It adds up to less.

This isn't unique to Walmart. Across retailers, the pattern repeats: maintain the price point, reduce the contents, celebrate the "savings." It's a marketing strategy that works because it tells us what we want to hear, even as it delivers less than what we need.

What Dayton Shoppers Are Actually Buying

For Dayton families, Kroger remains a Thanksgiving staple. In 2024, Kroger's "Freshgiving" bundle promised a meal for 10 at less than $4.85 per person, featuring a 14-16 pound turkey at 49¢ per pound, along with stuffing, sides, and pumpkin pie.

In 2025, Kroger maintained similar promotional language. But the American Farm Bureau Federation reports that turkey prices have risen from $0.94 per pound in 2024 to $1.32 per pound in 2025 — a 40% increase. To keep the advertised price point attractive, something had to give.

What gave was the plate itself.

The 2025 "deal" maintains its affordability through a combination of smaller turkeys, increased store-brand substitutions, and reduced side dish quantities. The promotional price stays politically palatable. The portion size becomes economically necessary.

A Neutral Analysis

To cut through the political noise, we need transparent methodology. I analyzed the real value, comparing meal components, per-diner portions (turkey weight, sides, desserts), inflation adjustment (≈3% from 2024 to 2025), and benchmarked against American Farm Bureau Federation's national average ($58.08 in 2024, or $5.80 per person).

The Result: Thanksgiving isn't cheaper. It's smaller.

When normalized for inflation and portion size, the "$4-per-person" 2025 meal would cost approximately $50-$54 if it matched 2024 servings — roughly equivalent to the previous year. The "savings" are real only if we accept that less food for the same occasion counts as economic progress. As for me, and my house, we still want full plates!

Visualizing the Truth: Two Plates, One Reality

The clearest way to understand this isn't through political debate or economic theory. It's through two dinner plates, side by side.

The 2024 Plate: A thick slice of turkey, two helpings of mashed potatoes, corn, stuffing, green beans, a roll, and a generous slice of pie. Traditional abundance.

The 2025 Plate: Smaller turkey portion, single scoop of potatoes, one roll, thinner dessert slice. Functional, but noticeably less.

This isn't a political statement. It's a physical reality. The 2025 plate isn't just "restructured for efficiency," it's smaller because economic pressures, from farm to table, demand it be smaller. "Smaller plates aren't just a marketing trick — they reflect a larger economic squeeze."

The Broader Pressure: Why Consumption Is Shrinking Across the Board

The Thanksgiving plate is a microcosm of a national trend. Americans are being pressed toward reduced consumption from multiple directions, regardless of political affiliation or economic philosophy.

SNAP Benefits Under Pressure: Changes in federal reconciliation packages have resulted in 22.3 million families losing some or all of their SNAP benefits, according to the Urban Institute. During the recent government shutdown, the Trump administration initially cut November SNAP benefits by 50%, later adjusted to 35%, with significant delays in distribution. Nearly 42 million people who rely on SNAP faced benefit disruptions starting November 1, 2025.

For Dayton families already stretching budgets, this isn't abstract policy — it's empty pantries.

Government Shutdowns and Delayed Assistance: Continuing budget battles and shutdown threats delay funding for nutrition programs precisely when families need them most. The uncertainty compounds the problem: even when benefits eventually arrive, the gap period forces impossible choices.

The Housing-Food Trade-off: Rising housing costs and utility bills eat away at disposable income. When rent increases but wages don't keep pace, the grocery budget becomes the release valve. Inflation in food prices might appear "tame" in government reports, but households experiencing it directly know that "tame" still means choosing between quality and quantity.

Corporate Shrinkflation: Beyond holiday deals, everyday grocery shopping reveals the same pattern: smaller packages at the same prices, fewer items per box, thinner cuts of meat. The price tag stays familiar; the value inside diminishes.

What It Means for Dayton Families

From a shopper's perspective, a $40 meal for ten sounds like progress. It's a headline that suggests relief, an indicator that maybe things are getting better. However, if those ten people leave the table less satisfied, if children get smaller portions, if grandparents skip seconds they used to enjoy — then the "savings" become hollow. The benefit is psychological, not nutritional. It's a temporary comfort that doesn't fill the actual need.

This is the quiet tension of 2025. We're told prices are improving while experiencing that what we get for those prices is less. Both can be technically true. Both can feel dishonest.

The Takeaway

Whether you view the current economy as strengthening or weakening, whether you credit or blame current or past administrations, the truth sits quietly between the headlines: Americans aren't necessarily paying less — they're eating less.

The smaller Thanksgiving plate isn't just a retail strategy or a political talking point. It's a snapshot of the American household in 2025 — stretching what's left to feed everyone at the table, making less feel like enough, and normalizing a gradual reduction in what we once considered standard.

The political debate will continue, but at kitchen tables across Dayton neighborhoods, the reality is visible on the plate itself.

Smaller portions. Tighter budgets. More pressure. Less abundance.

That's not a political statement. It's Thanksgiving 2025.

---

For Dayton families needing additional food assistance, The Foodbank, Inc. serves Montgomery, Greene, and Preble counties. Call 937-461-0265 or visit thefoodbankdayton.org for resources.